The threat of El Niño: an upcoming food shortage
El Niño: A phenomenon that disrupts ocean and atmospheric currents
What is El Niño ?
The ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) climate phenomenon is defined by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) as having two opposing phases: El Niño and La Niña.
The La Niña phenomenon moderates temperatures. "The cooling effect of La Niña conditions over most of the past three years has temporarily moderated the long-term warming trend", explains the WMO.
Conversely, the 'El Niño' phenomenon generates a large-scale increase in surface water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific. Every 2 to 7 years, the regular east-west flow of trade winds weakens, generating a heat build-up at the surface of the ocean.
The most recent ‘El Niño’ phenomenon occurred in 2016, the warmest year ever recorded. Over the next five years, the WMO predicts with a 98% certainty that the 2016 heatwave will be exceeded, and is calling us to "be ready".
Image source: The Hindu
Greater risks for 2023
The probability of an El Niño episode occurring between June and August 2023 is estimated at 60-70%, with an increased probability (70-80%) that it will remain during the boreal autumn (Northern Hemisphere) of 2023. The peak is expected to occur between December 2023 and January 2024.
The previous El Niño in 2015 and 2016 affected more than 60 million people in 23 countries. The UN estimated that 3.6 billion dollars were needed to deal with the consequences of this El Niño episode.
The WMO's predictions for this year should enable governments to anticipate the associated hazards: heavy rain, floods and droughts. These will directly affect a number of 'hotspots', such as below-average rainfall in the dry corridor of Central America, or successive extreme weather events in the Sahel and the Horn of Africa.
El Niño and insufficient food supplies
Flooding in Kenya. Source: photo Simon Maina, AFP archives, 2015.
One of the consequences of El Niño is poor harvests, leading to food shortages. Indeed, the droughts, floods and storms triggered by El Niño have a direct impact on agricultural areas.
In 2023, 205 million people will need urgent help to feed themselves. The regions most affected by food shortages are Southern Africa, Central America (El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua) and the Caribbean, as well as parts of Asia.
El Niño climatic factors are bound to worsen the situation in all these countries, and some are at risk of famine (especially Afghanistan, Nigeria, Somalia, South Sudan and Yemen).
Displaced persons camp of Kaxaarey to Dolow, Somalia. Source: A.G 2023
How are we concerned?
Developing countries are the ones most affected by El Niño, and are often least equipped to deal with it/cope. Paradoxically, richer countries that have developed their economies as a result of industrialisation (i.e. thanks to fossil fuels, which are responsible for the current climate disruption) are less impacted.
Nevertheless, the international community can take action to limit the effects of El Niño, by setting up early drought protocols and providing aid to countries in difficulty.
How can this be done? The FAO (Food and Agriculture Organisation), for example, encourages the creation of community seed reserves, the evaluation of food stocks and the monitoring of animal health. For countries facing drought, it is important to provide farming tools and water-resistant crop varieties before the cropping seasons.
Consequences in Europe
In this environment of increased tension on the food market, Europe is also dealing with climate change: while its consequences are less dramatic in Europe than on other continents, the impact on our agriculture is nonetheless significant. The arrival of El Niño is likely to amplify these impacts.
In 2023, the French National Federation of Agriculture has estimated that losses due to agricultural drought in France will reach between €200 and €300 million. Spain is particularly affected by the drought in Catalonia and Andalusia, which has now been affecting the country for thirty-two months. 60% of Spanish agricultural land is currently " suffocated " by the lack of rainfall.
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 8% of today's farmland will become climatically unsuitable by 2100.
Sau reservoir, near Barcelona, 20th of March 2023
To sum up
The emergence of El Niño will make climate disruption even more serious: a period of food instability could occur around the world, but also in Europe.
We are facing an emergency... with the risk of creating irreversible situations, such as the transformation of agricultural areas in southern Europe into desert zones.
According to the WMO:
- The "El Niño" phenomenon generates large-scale temperature increases in the surface waters of the equatorial Pacific. This causes a rise in global temperatures and increases the risk of extreme weather events.
- The most recent episode of El Niño, in 2016, was the year with the highest average annual temperature on record.
- The latest 'La Niña' episode has now ended, after lasting three years in a row: from 2020 to 2022.
- Climate change is intensifying the El Niño phenomena. Global temperatures will rise to historic levels.
- An El Niño episode is expected to occur from June to August 2023, with a strong likelihood of continuing into the boreal autumn (the northern hemisphere) and peaking between December and January 2023.
- The most affected areas where food is in short supply are Southern Africa, Central America and the Caribbean, as well as parts of Asia. 205 million people will need urgent help to feed themselves in 2023.
- Climate change is also a problem in Europe. In 2023, losses due to agricultural drought in France are estimated at around 300 million euros.
For more information
This article has been assembled from a wide range of sources:
francetvinfo - tf1.fr - 20minutes.fr - reseauactionclimat.org - sudouest.fr - public.wmo.int - elpais.com - elpais.com - elpais.com - tf1info.fr - bfmtv.com - euronews.com - rtl.fr - tf1info.fr - lemonde.fr - news.un.org - 20minutes.fr - elpais.com - elpais.com